Mir vs. Lesnar: The Fight for #2

Unlike Georges St. Pierre (18-2 MMA, 12-2 UFC, #1 IWMMAR) vs. Thiago Alves (16-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC, #2 IWMMAR), the heavyweight title figh at UFC 100 will do nothing to establish the #1 fighter in the division.

At the end of the night, whether the crowd chooses to chant his name or not, Fedor Emelianenko (30-1-0-1 MMA, #1 IWMMAR) will still be the greatest heavyweight in the world. He will still be ranked #1. The best that Frank Mir (12-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC, #2 IWMMAR) or Brock Lesnar (3-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, #4 IWMMAR) can hope for is to slip ahead of Fedor’s upcoming opponent and lay claim to the second place position.

Of course, claiming the number two sport with any authority will demand an impressive performance, especially from Lesnar. If there’s controversy in this fight, there’s a chance that Josh Barnett (24-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC, #3 IWMMAR) could find himself in that number two position. In international MMA, winning decisively means a lot more than simply winning, and if you want to claim a real top spot in a division, it’s important to make sure that you establish authority by destroying opponents. Emelianenko has done that, while Mir and Lesnar haven’t exactly put together dominant runs.

A lot of people assert that one has to be at the top of one of the big five divisions, one has to be in the UFC. That’s true for every division, with the exception of heavyweight, where as much talent exists outside the UFC as inside of it. The number of top ten heavyweights in the UFC (Lesnar, Mir, Couture, Nogueira and Carwin) is the same as the number of top ten heavyweights outside of the UFC (Emelianenko, Barnett, Overeem, Rogers and Arlovski). However, there are far more fighters outside of the UFC who are on the cusp of becoming top ten fighters, and that has a lot to do with the size of the talent pool.

Outside of the UFC, fighters like Fabricio Werdum (11-4-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC), Jeff Monson (30-8 MMA, 4-3 UFC), Gilbert Yvel (35-12-1-1 MMA), Paul Buentello (24-9 MMA, 3-1 UFC) and Aleksander Emelianenko (15-3 MMA) all have the potential, with two or three solid wins over substantial competition, to make their way into the top ten. The UFC doesn’t really have that. Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4 MMA, 6-3 UFC) has been eliminated from a potential top ten discussion following two losses. Cain Velasquez (6-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) may be able to break into the top ten with a win over Shane Carwin (11-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC, #8 IWMMAR), but he seems the lone opportunity for the UFC to claim a sixth heavyweight in that top ten, though Junior Dos Santos (8-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC) certainly has the potential, given his win over Werdum.

Of course, those are only marginal arguments as to why it will be hard, in the future, for Lesnar and Mir to establish themselves. Simply put, its hard for them to rack up legitimate, respectable wins, even against the top guys in the UFC.

More important, though, there’s a simple numerical difference between Fedor, who will continue to be #1 as long as he continues to win decisively, and whoever comes out on top in the UFC title fight this weekend.

That number, in its smallest form, is 10.

Fedor has ten straight decisive wins, following his no contest against Nogueira (it’s possible to go back farther and make the number bigger, but even the simplest figure, 10, helps highlight the difference between Emelianenko and both of the top UFC heavyweights.

The numbers match up like this:

Fedor has ten straight, decisive wins following a no contest against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, #5 IWMMAR).

Frank Mir has three straight, decisive wins following a loss to Brandon Vera (10-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC).

Brock Lesnar has two straight, decisive wins following a los to Mir.

Since his lone loss in December of 2000, Fedor has racked up a professional record of 26-0-0-1. Simply, Fedor has more wins since his last, incredibly controversial loss, than Lesnar and Mir have in both of their careers, combined. He has twice as many in that single streak as the more seasoned of the too (Mir) has in his career, much of which consists of his 8-1 pre-motorcycle accident run.

So let’s look at two possible scenarios, one if Brock Lesnar wins decisively, another if Mir wins decisively. If the bout ends with controversy, one can be sure that the two will meet again, and that Barnett will claim the number two spot while Mir and Lesnar pick up #3 and #4 in some order. Of course, that’s great for Tom Atencio and the Affliction leadership, but ignore that possibility for the moment.

If Brock Lesnar defeats Frank Mir decisively, he sets up a potential third bout between the two and takes up the #2 spot in the division, showing that he’s progressed in terms of his skills and matured in terms of his attitude in the cage, not simply rushing his opponents (which I think we can already be sure of, as he looked much better in his bout with Randy Couture). There will be discussions about whether Brock Lesnar’s power would be enough to make him a threat to Fedor Emelianenko, but at the end of the day, no one would hesitate to acknowledge that both in observing the history of the sport and the performances of both fighters (in quantity and quality), Fedor is the superior fighter. Not to mention he’s fought fighters much larger than Lesnar in the past without much difficulty, and Lesnar still is far from credible with respect to his ability to defend submissions. Fedor is still #1, but Lesnar can take up the #2 spot as an acknowledgement that people want to see him fight Fedor.

And now, the alternative:

If Frank Mir defeats Brock Lesnar decisively, there will be questions about whether he can pose a strategic threat to Emelianenko. Given that he’s the only fighter to finish Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, there’s potential for acknowledging a possible strategic advantage. However, like with Lesnar, it’s fairly easy to point out that Mir’s weaknesses are far more obvious than Fedor’s, that he’s struggled a great deal with fighters far weaker than Emelianenko (and far more recently than any tough, competitive bout Fedor has had). Fedor is statistically superior and, from a technical standpoint, it’s hard to argue that Mir offers anything Fedor hasn’t encountered in his career. Fedor is still #1, but Mir can take up the #2 as an acknowledgement that people want to see him fight Fedor.

Obviously, the scenarios are fraternal twins, and both put pressure on Dana to try and bring Fedor into the UFC, though it remains to be seen whether he can actually negotiate with those “crazy Russians.” Anyway, I’ve rattled on for long enough, but hopefully the repurcussions of this title fight are clear, as it’ll be an interesting bout to establish a clear champion in the UFC.