UFC 104 Possible Carwin vs. Velasquez

A big shot from Carwin left Gonzaga out stiff.

I’ve heard discussion about this matchup for a while, and MMAJunkie has started to assert that it is in the works for a potential UFC 104 bout, at the Staples Center, it’s definitely worth readdressing in a more direct way.

Cain Velasquez (6-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is a great young prospect. With a Division I collegiate wrestling background, the two time All American from Arizona State University (a campus which has produced a lot of great MMA fighters) is certainly coming up in the world. With a win over well respected gatekeeper Cheick Kongo (14-5-1 MMA, 7-3 UFC) the 26 year old Californian is concerned a dark horse in the race for a future UFC title belt.

Still, when all of that is said, the one fighter Cain should be worried about is Shane Carwin (11-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC, #8 IWMMAR). There is a worst case scenario that every fighter has to think about: what if the guy does everything that you do, only better? Shane Carwin is Cain Velasquez’s worst case scenario.

This is another undefeated fighter with almost twice as many wins, but that’s not the problem here. The problem for Cain is going to be skill sets.

In all of his fights, Cain’s advantages have been decisive. He has been the better wrestler, and he has been the more physically powerful fighter (though, perhaps, he didn’t have the athleticism of Kongo, he was certainly the stronger, thicker athlete).

His two time All American background is impressive, and the fact that he was a D I wrestler may be an advantage. But Carwin was a national champion in Division II, and a two time runner up. What really is going to give Velasquez problems, though, is not that his technical wrestling is inferior, as there’s very little demonstrable difference between the technical wrestling skills of the two fighters (at least as they’ve been applied in their MMA fights). The problem is going to be that Velasquez no longer has that size advantage.

Cain Velasquez weighed in at 239 pounds for his bout against Kongo, and frequently shows up around the 240 pound mark. When physically fit, that’s his build, and that’s where he’ll almost certainly be going into a bout against Carwin. Carwin generally weighs in 20+ pounds heavier, and weighed in for his last bout against Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4 MMA, 6-3 UFC) at 259.5 pounds. When the skills are about the same, the size and power is going to help Carwin a great deal in that bout.

Even considering that size advantage, the general dictum when dealing with a fighter from the same style is to fall back to an alternate skillset that you think you might have an advantage in. When Gonzaga fought fellow Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion Fabiano Scherner (7-7-2 MMA, 0-2 UFC) at UFC 60, the two decided to strike it out, knowing that a jiu-jitsu match against a fellow champ was going to be a tough battle for sure, and the striking war meant more openings from the opponent.

However, that gameplan isn’t going to work for Velasquez because Carwin, objectively, is a better striker. Carwin is a warrior who has starched two opponents since joining the UFC (he did take a big shot in the Gonzaga fight, but it seems a fair assessment that Gonzaga, too, is a better kickboxer than Velasquez). Velasquez has good technical kickboxing, but he has often had to fall back on his wrestling to finish fights because he doesn’t have the power to stop opponents in the standup. Carwin does, and has. Cain knows that he’s standing in front of a guy who has the power to leave him staring up at the lights wondering what day of the week it is.

This is a tough matchup for Velasquez, and one that Carwin should be a huge favorite in. Still, a win over a tough up-and-comer like Velasquez seems like a positive step in the career of a potential title contender like Carwin, and he has a lot to gain from decisively beating Velasquez in a high profile bout.

It is also worth noting that Carwin is a devastating finisher, just in general, with his longest fight lasting 2:11. None of his other wins have gone past the two minute mark. Velasquez, conversely, only has one bout that was finished in less than two minutes, though the bout with Kongo is the first time Cain has gone to a decision.