The Alves Paradox

Thiago Alves is one of the most devastating fighters in the welterweight division. There’s just one problem: Thiago Alves isn’t a welterweight.

The more you listen to commentators like Joe Rogan talk about his future in the division, you constantly hear them refer back to the Brazilian’s size. Perhaps, though, they shouldn’t be reminding everyone how big he is, because it’s presented a huge problem for Alves.

There is no doubt that Alves is a huge welterweight, and there have been times when he can make the weight, but there have also been moments where that hasn’t been the case.

We first saw that happen when he fought Tony D’Souza and tested positive for spironolactone.

However, as Rogan pointed out in the most recent commentary up on the UFC site, over the upcoming fight between Alves and Josh Koscheck, Alves seems to be getting bigger every time he fights.

Obviously, Thiago was bigger in his fight with Matt Hughes, because he failed to make weight. He may blame that on an ankle injury, but, honestly, he could have lost that weight on an elliptical or a bike that took the pressure off of his ankle. It comes down to the fact that (a) he didn’t adequately prepare for the weight cut or (b) he has gotten to the point where he’s having more trouble cutting weight.

Still, when I look at the pictures of the fights with Hironaka and the Lytle and the Parisyan fight, he seems to be getting bigger and bigger, even in those. The growth doesn’t seem to be in his pecs and abs, but in his back and legs.

The other problem is that fighters never really get lighter as they age, and that may prove to be a problem for Alves, especially since he has a long time to go in the sport, and because he’s not that big for the middleweight division, and he’s definitely not technical enough on his feet to survive among the powerful strikers in that division, with Silva, obviously, as well as McFedries and Cote and Kampmann.

He has also been exposed in the past on the ground, and while his takedown defense proved substantial against an aging and slowing Matt Hughes, but the truth is that the submission fighters in that division would find a way to get him to the ground, whether on the top or bottom, and submit him really easily.

Alves has to stay in the welterweight division if he was to continue his success and continue to display his power. He’s going to, at some point in his career, slim down so that he can remain in the division that he has become a force in.

This is where we come to the secondary problem with Alves coming down in weight, and it’s probably the biggest problem.

Alves is a warrior, and his thai skills are very good, but his biggest advantage, from the fights that we’ve seen, has not been his technical ability, but rather his ability to exploit an obvious size advantage. We saw that in the Hughes fight and we saw it in the Lytle fight (though I will say that I thought his technique played a substantial roll in finishing Karo, his size may very well have finished the job).

The reality is that if Alves does decide to slim down to make the weight, it may cost him his greatest advantage, that power that he has as a result of his size. We saw it happen to Sherk in the lightweight fight with Penn, where it seemed obvious he had slimmed down (for different reasons, but the point stands), and it cost him the greatest advantage he had over Penn, his power.

Now, there are going to be those who dismiss this issue as irrelevant to Alves’ immediate future, and who think that he should cross that bridge when he comes to it. The truth is, if he beats Koscheck, it’s not going to be something that he can put off.

A confrontation with St. Pierre becomes inevitable, and St. Pierre is a fighter who really removes the Alves paradox from the equation, because if Alves’ size is playing a roll in his ability to dominate fighters, it may not play a roll in a fight with St. Pierre, where he will have only a marginal, if any, advantage.

The real issue, though, is that we are going to see how substantial Alves’ muay thai and takedown defense really are, from a technical perspective, against a fighter who has great takedowns and destructive striking.

In the event of an Alves vs. St. Pierre title fight, Alves’ biggest problem won’t be with his weight, it will be with his skills, and he may very well be exposed as a physical monster coasting on his power.

Alves’ future is going to be an interesting one, as we don’t really have many fighters who are so physically dominant with such unproven technical ability. We’ll see which road Alves chooses, and if his success continues as a result of it, but the jury, at least for me, is still out.

Any thoughts on the piece can be emailed to me at josh@mmaopinion.com. I do answer email, so if you have some thoughts, feel free to send them.