Thoughts on Jackson vs. Griffin
By Josh Stein on Jul 01, 2008
There was a time when I thought that Forrest and Rampage were going to give us one of the most exciting fights of the year, as the result of an incredibly matchup. The more I think about it, the more I watch their tape and the more I think about the way that this matchup actually looks, the more aware I am that this is not going to be the war that everyone thinks it is.
Forrest Griffin believes he can go into a clinch and beat Rampage the same way that Shogun did. He believes that he’s going to use his lanky build and his muay thai to beat Rampage the way that he believes that Rampage can be beaten. Forrest thinks that he can out-finesse Rampage and bob and weave and work from the clinch.
Forrest Griffin is delusional.
About halfway through the Countdown to UFC 86, Juanito Ibarra reminded me of something that had been eating at me: Rampage is not the same fighter that lost to Wanderlei and Shogun. Rampage has had no trouble translating his game to the cage.
If this fight ends up in the clinch, you will see Rampage kill Forrest. Forrest pointed out that Rampage’s legs aren’t long, but Rampage isn’t going to hit Forrest with a knee. It’s going to be an uppercut.
Rampage is going to make this fight a brawl, and Forrest’s game is going to degrade into brawling. The technique is going to fade, eventually, and it’s going to turn into a bangers ball eventually. There might be slams, there might not. There will be bombs.
The only way Forrest wins this fight is the other way that Rampage can be beaten, the way that Sakuraba beat him, because it’s the weakness that Rampage knows (and has said openly) that he hasn’t shored up. Rampage can be choked out, and Forrest can choke dudes out.
If the fight ends up on the ground, Rampage can give up his back, and he can lose there. That, unfortunately, is Forrest’s one way out.
I say “unfortunately” because Rampage controls whether or not that fight goes to the ground and as long as he doesn’t get stupid, he won’t. If Rampage doesn’t get slam happy, he’ll win this fight with bombs.
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When I first thought about this fight, back when TUF 7 was announced, I was gunning for Forrest all the way. I thought back then that his win over Rua showed that he was ready to take that belt from Rampage and flow through the rest of the division. Maybe I was a bit delusional as well. Now, I’m thinking not so much. I know Griffin is going to come out ready to hit hard with a solid gameplan and an edge on the ground game. So did Dan Henderson, an olympic wrestler with solid credentials on the ground and the “gorilla grip” in the clinch, back at UFC 75. So what did Rampage do? He basically just fought it out with Henderson and never really let him get an advantage throughout the fight. I’m thinking we’ll see the same thing here. We know Rampage can go 25 minutes and as shown by the epic Bonnar fight at TUF 1, we know that Griffin can take some shots. So what’s it gonna be? Another decision. That’s what I foresee.
I agree that Rampage should win this fight, but you can’t blame Forrest for being confident. As a fighter, he has to be confident. It’s not delusional thinking, because every opponent can potentially be beaten. Many people thought Forrest was “delusional” to think he could beat Shogun before that fight happened, and even though Shogun obviously wasn’t himself in that fight, you still have to give Forrest credit for the win.
Forrest stepped up, and can be counted on to fight his best fight. It probably won’t be enough, but give him credit for having balls and giving a great effort. He’s willing to take the risk. Nothing delusional about that.
You make some good points, but
Forrest has a FAR BETTER camp than Rampge.
Forrest has a far stronger work ethic.
Forrest has better sparring partners.
I think Rampage certainly is the favorite here, but I also think he is taking Forrest lightly. That could be a factor. Rampage said that having nine months off was ok when facing Forrest, but he would not have fought Hendo or Liddell after that period of inactivity.
Forrest has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
I think that Rampage will win, but if he is not focused, he could be upset. Forrest is a hard-working, hard-hitting fighter that seems to rise to the occasion when facing top guys.
I think it, along with Kos/Lytle, will be fun fights.
Jeremy, you really think that?
This is a guy that trains with Juanito Ibarra, one of the best coaches in the entire sport (arguably, #3 behind Jackson and Miletich).
Forrest works hard, but I’ve seen Page’s conditioning, it’s pretty phenomenal.
Page spars with guys like Vera and Kongo. They’re definitely better than the guys that Forrest is working with.
You have no basis to say Rampage is taking Forrest lightly. Maybe he is, but Rampage hasn’t taken a fight lightly before. Even the times he’s gotten his ass kicked, he’s taken his opponents pretty seriously. Rampage was simply making the objective point that Liddell and Hendo are more accomplished fighters than Forrest, and, honestly, that’s true. Both have held multiple titles, and Forrest is looking at his first fight. It’s a different thing to step in against guys who have fought at this level before, Forrest hasn’t.
I agree that Forrest has nothing to lose in this fight, and I expect him to go balls to the wall. Still, I don’t think he’s going to win. At best, he’ll make it exciting. But anything can happen.
Honestly, I expect Kos/Lytle to be a snoozefest, with Kos returning to that “whup ass by decision gameplan.”
Josh,
Forrest is out of Extreme Couture, which is the most successful camp today. It has passed Miletich completely. You have some of the top fighters in every weight class there.
Forrest is training with Couture, Wandy Silva, Goran Reljic, Vitor Belfort, Bonnar, Kampmann…the list goes on. He has Robert Drysdale and Jacare working with him on BJJ.
Forrest has Couture, Frazier and Shawn Tompkins as trainers. Tompkins is one of the best today and was largely responsible for Dan Henderson’s return to peak form. Interestinly enough, his last two losses occured after Shawn left to run Xtreme Couture.
As far as Rampage taking Forrest lightly, he has made many comments about this being an easier fight. He said he would never have fought Chuck or Dan after a nine-month layoff, but this is a fight that he can do that for. Tell me that does not sound like he is looking past Forrest.
Everyone is saying Forrest has no chance. Everyone said the same thing before the Ortiz fight and before the Shogun fight.
As I said, I think Rampage will win, but he has to be focused. His weaknesses (dislike of training, trouble getting motivated at times…though Ibarra has helped with that) are Forrest’s strengths. Nobody trains harder than Forrest.
Rampage has been training, but he has also been trying out for movies and talking to agents about pos films.
As I said, Forrest rises to the occasion. Both fighters showed a lot of heart and helped the sport of MMA with their performances.